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The Flag of the World

-G. K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy

This here blog is a glimpse or two or three at the condition of the 'fortress of our family' through the eyes Timothy Goddard, a Christian writer with an unhealthy interest in politics living in the Puget Sound area.

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Wednesday, November 05, 2003

 

What does it all mean?
That's what we all get to ask every first Wednesday of November. The question is about elections, if you missed it. And the answer? That depends on who you ask. A Republican might say "those two wins [are] a few more O's in the "dooooom" that's being spelt out for the Democrats in 2004." A Democrat might say that
these victories are hardly surprising, and they are not harbingers of a Bush victory next November. For Bush, winning in Mississippi and Kentucky is not an issue. Last time around, he carried both states 57% to 41%. No Democrat, in his or her right mind, even fantasizes about carrying these two states.


Who's right, you ask? I am, of course. But why exactly, you counter? I'll tell you.

For the second election in a row, Republicans have beat the polls. We all remember the scuffuffle when all the major media outlets were calling the Schawarzenegger landslide "a tight race" right up until the last minute, right? Something similar happened in Mississippi. I was obsessively following the returns all night, and after about 20% of the vote was in, Barbour never led by less than five points, and won by eight. Still, it wasn't called for Barbour until after midnight, and was called "tight" all night, when it really wasn't tight at all, and Barbour beat the all the most recent polls by three points or more. In Kentucky, though Fletcher was expected to win, the only one expecting a full 10-point margin of victory was Real Clear Politics.

THe fact is that Republicans are consistently beating the polls, both this year and last. Whether this is because Republicans are voting more, or because the center of politics has shifted to the right a notch or two since 2001, I'm not sure. But, especially if it happens again on the 15th, it should have Democrats worried.

They can go ahead and give up on the South, as Matthew Rothschild does above. That just means that Bush has more time and money to spend on all the other states, and that southern Senate seats will be easier for Republicans to pick off. The fact is, Republican strongholds are not in play, even for DINO's like Musgrove. Meanwhile, every single Democratic stronghold is up for grabs. This doesn't guarantee anything, but I'd put forth that it's most likely yet another O.
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