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The Flag of the World

-G. K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy

This here blog is a glimpse or two or three at the condition of the 'fortress of our family' through the eyes Timothy Goddard, a Christian writer with an unhealthy interest in politics living in the Puget Sound area.

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Friday, February 06, 2004


Ok, ok, call it for Kerry
I note now that Howard Dean and I agreed on something two days ago--that Washington state would be his turning point. However, today, I don't think I agree with him. And it's his own stupid fault that I don't agree, which I do because he's losing his once iron grip on Washington state. I no longer think he's going to win--there's still a chance of it happening, and if it does, then the scenario I described the other day could still happen as well. But Dean appears to be doing very little to make that happen.

I said there were three criteria for any non-Kerry candidate to win a state at this point. First and second, the state needs to have a predisposition to dislike Kerry, and needs to identify with the winning candidate. Both of those are present. I also said that the winner needs to focus very intently on the race. Dean has not done that--instead, he's bailed out of Washington, in favor of Wisconsin. I think this may be due to overconfidence, but I predict it will kill him. He's calling Wisconsin a "must-win" state, which is idiotic. He won't win Wisconsin if he doesn't win Washington, ergo, Washington is a must-win state.

He's completely missed the dynamics of the two states. As long as we're talking Democrats and liberals and the like, Washington is the cool state, Wisconsin is the wannabe state--sorry, Wisconsiners, but it's true. As any high schooler can tell you, if you get the cool kids to do something, the wannabes will do it also.

If Dean had done the all-out blitz on Washington that he's doing in Wisconsin, he would have set himself up for victory. As it is, I think it will be too little, too late. Sorry, Howie. But, I suppose we will see what happens tommorow.
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