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The Flag of the World

-G. K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy

This here blog is a glimpse or two or three at the condition of the 'fortress of our family' through the eyes Timothy Goddard, a Christian writer with an unhealthy interest in politics living in the Puget Sound area.

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Tuesday, September 07, 2004

 
All over but the party-switching
It is slowly but surely becoming understood that Bush is going to win this election, and he is going to win handily. I've been saying this for a while, but reality is beginning to catch up to my prediction. As evidence of the impending rout, I offer a these:
  • Every single election prediction model gives Bush the edge, usually a substantial one. (Via that fount of Bush-related optimism, Orrin Judd.)

  • Since 1948, no candidate who has led in the polls at Labor Day has gone on to lose the popular vote. (Via the same.)

  • Speaking of Labor Day polls, consider this summary from Real Clear Politics.

  • Consider also this lengthier rundown of reasons from Brendan Miniter of the Wall Street Journal. (Via Steve McMullen in the comments to the last post.)

Despite opinions to the contrary, Republicans can afford to get cocky. I've been cocky for quite a while now, and an air of inevitability has never hurt a campaign. We just can't get complacent--there is a difference.

The question is no longer, "will Bush win?" but rather "how long will Bush's coattails be?" The goal is now to invigorate Repubicans and Bush supporters enough (and depress Democrats and Bush haters enough) that formerly long-shot senate candidates like Nethercutt in Washington and Jones in California will be pulled along, and to convince moderate Dems in conservative states that their constituents are best served by Republicans.
UPDATE: James Taranto sums it up nicely:
You know, if John Kerry weren't so darn electable, the Democrats would be panicking right now. Oh wait, he isn't and they are.

Agree, disagree, have more information on the topic? Please, feel free to leave a comment. No profanity!
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