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The Flag of the World

-G. K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy

This here blog is a glimpse or two or three at the condition of the 'fortress of our family' through the eyes Timothy Goddard, a Christian writer with an unhealthy interest in politics living in the Puget Sound area.

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Monday, September 27, 2004

Washington the Swing State
Matt Rosenburg notes a SurveyUSA poll and a Strategic Vision poll that both show Washington to be a very evenly divided state. As I've suspected, Dino Rossi has the best chance of the major Republican candidates, followed by Bush, and then somewhat longshot Nethercutt--though he has cut deeply into Murray's former doublt-digit lead.

Both polls show Gregoire and Rossi neck and neck in the race for the Governor's mansion, with a significant amount of undecided voters--this is especially good for Rossi considering we are just coming off of a heated (though not close) Democratic primary during which Gregoire was able to make her case with the full view of the media. Despite his underdog status, Rossi is setting the terms of the debate, as Gregoire has informed everyone that she, too is "committed to change". Rossi is very likeable and good at what he does--his main challenge will be to get the amount of exposure needed to convince people of this. If Bush and the RNC put effort and money into Washington, this will happen.

The SurveyUSA poll shows Bush down by only 5 here--the Strategic Vision poll shows him tied, though SV is a GOP polling organization, and therefore suspect. But either way, the race is tighter than Kerry can be comfortable with, and if Bush puts some real effort and money into the state, he can take it. And Washington is a prime target for Bush, not only for his sake, but because he very well could take a Senator with him.

That potential Senator, George Nethercutt, is pretty far down in each poll. But Murray is hardly campaigning at all, while Nethercutt is putting up a spirited fight, and a Bush landslide could take him along. It's a hard road, though, as Nethercutt is from the east side of the state, where there the people aren't.

It will be an interesting election night here, however you slice it.
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